FORECAST EDGE
A forecast only earns trust where it disagrees with the dumb baseline — a random walk with drift, built from the same window the model saw. Agreement adds nothing to bet on; divergence is the model's actual call.
NAMES FORECAST
6
CONTRARIAN TO DRIFT
5
WIDEST DIVERGENCE
KBANK
NAMEKRONOSDRIFTEDGECALL
KBANK-22.8%+4.9%-27.7%fights trend
PTT-17.4%+8.5%-25.9%fights trend
BBL-16.6%+4.0%-20.6%fights trend
SCB-12.1%+2.3%-14.4%fights trend
SET-12.8%-1.4%-11.4%amplifies
ADVANC-0.9%+0.6%-1.6%fights trend
THE REPORT CARD · FORECASTS GRADED ON WHAT HAPPENED
Every forecast is logged the day it is made and graded the day its horizon arrives. The 2026-06-24 exam is in: the model went 4 for 12 on direction, and beat the dumb drift baseline 1 times. A famous model is not a right model — that is the whole lesson of this page.
NAMEKRONOSDRIFTREALITYGRADE
SET-10.3%+5.4%-0.1%hit
PTT-9.0%+1.2%+7.5%miss
KBANK-11.9%+3.9%+15.3%miss
ADVANC-10.0%-2.1%+4.2%miss
SCB-7.2%+7.6%+8.2%miss
BBL-8.7%+7.2%+7.2%miss
SET-15.9%+3.3%-2.3%hit
PTT-14.5%-2.1%+8.5%miss
KBANK-26.3%+7.3%+1.2%miss
ADVANC-9.9%+0.5%-5.9%hit
SCB-16.0%-5.1%-0.7%hit
BBL-17.0%-8.5%+0.0%miss
graded 2026-06-24 → 2026-07-23 · today's forecast above is on record the same way — next grading ~2026-10-14 · we publish the misses